Search results for "Atmospheric dynamics"
showing 10 items of 12 documents
Interspecific comparison of the performance of soaring migrants in relation to morphology, meteorological conditions and migration strategies.
2012
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.-- et al.
Recent changes in measured wind in the NE Atlantic and variability of correlation with NAO
2010
The paper deals with wind measurements, recorded since the 1950s, at twelve meteorological stations along a transect near the westernmost European border, between 64° and 44° N. Extreme wind speed tends to decrease sharply near the northern boundary (at Reykjavick), near the middle of the study area (at Shannon and Valentia) and near the southern boundary (at Brest and Cap Ferret), to increase at Thorshavn, with less significant trends at the other stations. Average wind speeds confirm the above tendencies, with an additional increasing speed at Lerwick, Kirkwall, Malin Head, Belle-Ile and Cap Ferret. To compare changes in wind activity, the data have been subdivided into three periods: unt…
Processes governing the amplification of ensemble spread in a medium-range forecast with large forecast uncertainty
2019
This study provides a process-based perspective on the amplification of forecast uncertainty and forecast errors in ensemble forecasts. A case from the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment that exhibits large forecast uncertainty is analysed. Two aspects of the ensemble behaviour are considered: (a) the mean divergence of the ensemble members, indicating the general amplification of forecast uncertainty, and (b) the divergence of the best and worst members, indicating extremes in possible error-growth scenarios. To analyse the amplification of forecast uncertainty, a tendency equation for the ensemble variance of potential vorticity (PV) is derived and partitioned into …
Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) : an integrated project for understanding of the West African climate system and its human dimension
2011
International audience; The intraseasonal time scale is critical in West Africa where resources are highly rainfall dependent. Three main modes of variability have been identified, two with a mean periodicity of 15 days and one with a mean periodicity around 40 days. These modes have a regional scale and can strongly influence precipitation and convective activity. They are mainly controlled by atmospheric dynamics and land-surface interactions. They can also modulate the very specific phase of the African summer monsoon onset. A better knowledge of the mechanisms controlling this scale is necessary to improve its predictability.
Winter “weekend effect” in southern Europe and its connections with periodicities in atmospheric dynamics
2008
[1] Winter weekly cycles of different climatic variables have been detected over Spain during the 1961–2004 period. The 13 analyzed series come from stations placed on different climatological and geographical areas with different level of urban influence. Therefore, the weekly cycles can hardly be related with local effects. Contrarily, we suggest that the weekly cycles may be related with changes in the atmospheric circulation over Western Europe, which may be due to some indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols. Particularly interesting is the observed increase in Sea Level Pressure over Southern Europe during the weekends and consequently a decrease of anticyclonic conditions during th…
Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts
2017
The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …
Characterization of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of West African vegetation between 1982 and 2002 by means of NOAA AVHRR NDVI data
2007
AbstractThe interannual and intraseasonal variability of West African vegetation over the period 1982–2002 is studied using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR).The novel independent component analysis (ICA) technique is applied to extract the main modes of the interannual variability of the vegetation, among which two modes are worth describing. The first component (IC1) describes NDVI variability over the Sahel from August to October. A strong photosynthetic activity over the Sahel is related to above-normal convection and rainfall within the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in summertime and is partly associated …
Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD
2011
Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existin…
Lagrangian matches between observations from aircraft, lidar and radar in a warm conveyor belt crossing orography
2021
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important airstreams in extratropical cyclones, often leading to the formation of intense precipitation and the amplification of upper-level ridges. This study presents a case study that involves aircraft, lidar and radar observations in a WCB ascending from western Europe towards the Baltic Sea during the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) and T-NAWDEX-Falcon in October 2012, a preparatory campaign for the THORPEX North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (TNAWDEX). Trajectories were used to link different observations along the WCB, that is, to establish so-called Lagrangian matches between observations. To this aim, a…
Conditions atmosphériques associées aux chutes de grêles en Bourgogne.
2020
A network of 96 hail pads is installed in Burgundy since 2014. Hailfalls in this part of France are mainly recorded from Avril to September and usually at the end of the afternoon when the surface air has been warmed enough to trigger an upward lift. Atmospherically speaking, hailfalls in Burgundy are associated with southward winds blowing from the Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lions) according to a strong negative barometric anomaly centered over Germany and extended southwestward until the south of Spain. A weak northwestward wind is at the same time also blowing until the northern part of Burgundy creating a thermal air-mass conflict and therefore a convective available potential energy wh…